Data 69É«ÇéƬ
  • Research and White Papers
  • November 2024

US Population All-Cause Mortality Report

Analysis by age and sex gives insight into reducing excess mortality

By
  • Brendon Lapham
  • Jason McKinley
  • Richard Russell
Skip to Authors and Experts
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In Brief

69É«ÇéƬ has created an featuring an in-depth analysis of US population mortality in the wake of COVID-19. As a central component of that analysis, 69É«ÇéƬ's Global R&D team produced a report on all-cause excess mortality, which is summarized below.

Key takeaways

  • US population mortality is a key source of granular and current mortality experience. Emerging US results may provide leading insights into mortality trends for insured lives applicable to multiple markets and multiple functions within an insurer. These population trends might also signal the time when insurers can safely and reasonably redevelop new mortality bases from insured data.
  • US excess mortality estimates for 2020 (March-December) and 2021 were 21% and 20%, respectively. This excess dropped to 12% in 2022 and 4% in 2023.
  • We expect US population excess mortality to settle in the region of 1%-3% for 2024 overall; however, there is material uncertainty to this estimate – for one, 2024 has months remaining as of this writing. An overall excess of 1%-3% would be appreciably lower than the excess of 4% observed in 2023.
  • Importantly, we demonstrate that age and sometimes sex differences significantly impact US population excess mortality estimates.

While we have observed persistent excess mortality in the US population following the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, recent mortality trends – including 2024 excess death estimates – suggest that the overall excess has decreased substantially from the peak of the acute phase. Indeed, there is a possibility that the age-standardized mortality – for some age groups and sometimes depending on sex – will be lower in 2024 overall than that observed in 2019 and in-line with pre-pandemic expectations for the period.

To understand where population excess mortality may be headed in the medium term, a comprehensive evaluation of each major cause of death is essential. 69É«ÇéƬ will examine some of the trends in specific causes in subsequent reports.

To learn about the latest all-cause and by-cause report updates as they are published, sign up for 69É«ÇéƬ’s US mortality analysis email list.

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Meet the Authors & Experts

Brendon Lapham
Author
Brendon Lapham
Lead Data Scientist, Global Research and Development
Jason McKinley
Author
Jason McKinley
Actuary, Global Research and Development
Richard Russell
Author
Richard Russell
Vice President, Head of Health Data Analytics, Global Research and Development